The 58.1% Risk: Toronto Maple Leafs Draft Lottery Odds and Historical Analysis
The 2025-26 NHL regular season has officially concluded, and for the Toronto Maple Leafs, the final standings tell a story of strategic failure and draft-lottery desperation. By finishing with 78 points, the Blue and White have secured the 5th-worst record in the NHL (28th overall). While normally a high draft pick is a cause for celebration, the "Brandon Carlo Condition" has turned the upcoming May 5th lottery into a high-stakes gamble that could leave the Leafs without a first-round pick entirely.
Per the conditions of the trade that brought Brandon Carlo to Toronto, the Leafs retain their 2026 first-round pick only if it lands in the Top 5. If the lottery balls drop the Leafs to 6th or 7th, the pick immediately transfers to the Boston Bruins. Today, we look at the raw percentages and a decade of historical data to see just how likely it is that Toronto keeps its pick.
The Current Odds: A Coin Flip with a Lean Toward Boston
As the 5th-worst team, Toronto has an 8.5% chance of winning the 1st overall pick. However, the more important number for Leafs fans is the aggregate chance of staying in the Top 5 versus sliding out. Based on the 2026 lottery weighted system:
- Total Chance to Keep the Pick (1st-5th): 41.9%
- Total Chance to Lose the Pick to Boston (6th-7th): 58.1%
Statistically, the most likely outcome for Toronto is picking 6th overall (44.0%), which would mean seeing their highest draft asset in years head straight to their biggest rival in Boston.
Historical Data: The "5th Spot" Curse (2015-2025)
To understand the danger, we have to look at how the NHL Draft Lottery has treated the 5th-worst team over the last 11 years. History suggests that finishing 28th overall is one of the most volatile positions in sports.
| Year | 5th-Worst Standing Team | Resulting Pick | Outcome for Toronto if Repeated |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Boston (Finished 28th) | 7th Overall | LOSE PICK |
| 2024 | Montreal (Finished 28th) | 5th Overall | KEEP PICK |
| 2023 | Montreal (Finished 28th) | 5th Overall | KEEP PICK |
| 2022 | New Jersey (Finished 28th) | 2nd Overall | KEEP PICK |
| 2021 | Detroit (Finished 28th) | 6th Overall | LOSE PICK |
| 2020 | Anaheim (Finished 28th) | 6th Overall | LOSE PICK |
| 2019 | Buffalo (Finished 28th) | 7th Overall | LOSE PICK |
| 2018 | Detroit (Finished 28th) | 6th Overall | LOSE PICK |
| 2017 | New Jersey (Finished 27th*) | 1st Overall | KEEP PICK |
| 2016 | Calgary (Finished 26th*) | 6th Overall | LOSE PICK |
| 2015 | Carolina (Finished 26th*) | 5th Overall | KEEP PICK |
*Note: Standing rank adjusted for league size of 30 or 31 teams in earlier years.
The Historical Verdict
Over the last 11 lotteries, the team in Toronto's current position (5th worst) has slid out of the Top 5 seven times (63.6%). Since 2016, the trend is even worse; the 5th-worst team has lost a Top 5 spot in 7 of the last 10 years. History is not on our side.
Lessons from the "Jumpers"
While the risk of sliding is high, the lottery also allows for massive jumps. Since 2015, the #1 overall pick has often gone to teams that didn't finish dead last. The New York Islanders proved this just last year, winning the lottery from the 10th-worst spot. In 2017, New Jersey won the top pick from the 5th-worst spot—the exact position Toronto occupies now.
Here is where the winners of the 1st overall pick finished in the standings since 2015:
| Year | Winner | Standing Finish |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | NY Islanders | 10th Worst |
| 2024 | San Jose Sharks | Last (32nd) |
| 2023 | Chicago Blackhawks | 3rd Last (30th) |
| 2022 | Montreal Canadiens | Last (32nd) |
| 2021 | Buffalo Sabres | Last (31st) |
| 2020 | NY Rangers | 14th Worst |
| 2019 | New Jersey Devils | 3rd Last (29th) |
| 2018 | Buffalo Sabres | Last (31st) |
| 2017 | New Jersey Devils | 5th Last (27th) |
| 2016 | Toronto Maple Leafs | Last (30th) |
| 2015 | Edmonton Oilers | 3rd Last (28th) |
Our Assessment: The May 5th Fate
The math suggests that May 5th will be a nervous night for MLSE. If Toronto wins a lottery draw, they move up. If a team behind them (seeds 6 through 16) wins a draw, Toronto is pushed down. Under the current rules, a team can only move up 10 spots, meaning Toronto is "eligible" to hit #1 overall if their number is called. However, they are also highly vulnerable to the "double jump"—where two teams from the 6-16 range move up, pushing the Leafs from 5th to 7th.
For the Leafs, the difference between picking 5th and 6th isn't just one slot in the draft order; it is the difference between having a future cornerstone player and having a gaping hole in their 2026 recruitment class. If the pick goes to Boston, the Brandon Carlo trade will likely be remembered as the final nail in the coffin of the current management's legacy.
Final Thoughts
We are looking at a 41.9% chance of survival. Historically, the 5th-worst team has struggled to stay in the protected zone. As we wait for the ping-pong balls to decide the future of the Blue and White, one thing is certain: the result of the lottery will dictate the Leafs' strategy for the next five years. Stay tuned to TML Buzz for live coverage on lottery night.