Could the Toronto Maple Leafs Get a Top 5 Pick This Year?

Updated: April 16, 2026

Published: April 06, 2026

Final Standings: Leafs Lock in 5th Best Lottery Odds

The 2025-26 nightmare is officially over. After losing their season finale 3-1 to the Ottawa Senators, the Toronto Maple Leafs have finished 28th in the NHL standings. While the season was a disaster on the ice, the "masterful" late-season slide (0-6-1 in their final seven) puts them in the best possible position to retain their top-five protected draft pick.

Draft Lottery Odds - May 5, 2026

  • 8.5% chance for the 1st Overall Pick.
  • 41.9% total chance to keep the pick (Top 5).
  • 58.1% chance the pick conveys to the Boston Bruins (6th or 7th).

The lottery on May 5th will be a franchise-defining moment. If the ping-pong balls fall in Toronto's favor, they could land a generational talent. If they slide down just one spot to 6th, the Brandon Carlo trade will go down as one of the most lopsided deals in Toronto history.

As of the morning of April 15, 2026, the Toronto Maple Leafs sit as the fifth-worst team in the NHL. With only one game left on the schedule—a final showdown against the Ottawa Senators—the path to the draft lottery is nearly set.

The Stakes: Per the Brandon Carlo trade, the Leafs retain their 2026 first-round pick if it lands in the Top 5. If the lottery results drop them to 6th or 7th, the pick belongs to Boston.

NHL Standings Watch: April 15, 2026

The Final Race for Seeding

  • Seattle Kraken: 79 pts (2 games remaining | 34 RW)
  • Toronto Maple Leafs: 78 pts (1 game remaining | 32 RW)
  • Calgary Flames: 75 pts (1 game remaining)
  • New York Rangers: 75 pts (1 game remaining)
  • Chicago Blackhawks: 70 pts (1 game remaining)
  • Vancouver Canucks: 58 pts (1 game remaining)

Following the Calgary Flames' regulation loss to the Colorado Avalanche last night, the Flames can no longer catch the Maple Leafs. This means Toronto is guaranteed to finish no lower than 5th worst in the NHL standings, provided they do not overtake Seattle.

The Maple Leafs will move into the 6th worst spot only if they win tonight and the Seattle Kraken lose both of their remaining games in regulation. Because Seattle holds a significant lead in the tiebreaker (Regulation Wins), even a single point gained by the Kraken in their final two matchups would likely keep Toronto in the 5th seed regardless of the outcome in Ottawa.

Critical Games Today: April 15, 2026

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators (7:00 PM ET)
Seattle Kraken at Vegas Golden Knights (10:00 PM ET)

Note: We will provide a final regular-season standings update tomorrow morning once all results are official.

As of the morning of April 14, 2026, the Toronto Maple Leafs sit as the fifth-worst team in the NHL. Following a brutal Monday night loss to the Dallas Stars, the Leafs have just one game remaining to determine their final lottery seeding.

The Stakes: Per the Brandon Carlo trade, the Leafs retain their 2026 first-round pick if it lands in the Top 5. If the lottery drops them to 6th or 7th, the pick goes to Boston.

NHL Standings Watch: April 14, 2026

The Race to Stay Bottom-Five

  • Seattle Kraken: 79 pts (2 games remaining)
  • Toronto Maple Leafs: 78 pts (1 game remaining)
  • Calgary Flames: 75 pts (2 games remaining)
  • New York Rangers: 75 pts (1 game remaining)
  • Chicago Blackhawks: 70 pts (1 game remaining)
  • Vancouver Canucks: 56 pts (2 games remaining)

The math is getting tight. Following Monday's results, the Maple Leafs can only overtake Seattle if Toronto wins their final game and the Kraken lose both of their remaining matchups in regulation.

Conversely, the Calgary Flames can still pass Toronto in the standings if they earn at least 3 points in their final two games and Toronto loses to Ottawa. The Vancouver Canucks, Chicago Blackhawks, and New York Rangers are effectively locked into the bottom three spots and cannot "catch" Toronto.

Critical Game Tonight: April 14, 2026

Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames (9:00 PM ET)

If the Flames lose in regulation tonight, they will be mathematically locked in as the 4th worst team in the NHL, keeping the Leafs at 5th. However, if Calgary gets at least one point tonight, the race stays alive until the final night of the season.

Note: We will update these standings tomorrow following the conclusion of tonight's Flames game.

As of the morning of April 13, 2026, the Toronto Maple Leafs sit as the fifth-worst team in the NHL. Depending on the final two games, the Leafs will likely finish between 3rd and 10th in the overall league standings.

NHL Standings Watch: April 13, 2026

The "Bubble" for the Top 5 Protection

Games to Watch Today: April 13, 2026

Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs
Minnesota Wild at St. Louis Blues
San Jose Sharks at Nashville Predators
Los Angeles Kings at Seattle Kraken
Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights
New York Rangers at Florida Panthers

Games Results Today: April 13

Dallas Stars 6 at Toronto Maple Leafs 5 -Final
Minnesota Wild 3 at St. Louis Blues 6 -Final
San Jose Sharks 3 at Nashville Predators 2 -Final
Los Angeles Kings 5 at Seattle Kraken 3 -Final
Winnipeg Jets 2 at Vegas Golden Knights 6 -Final
New York Rangers 2 at Florida Panthers 3 -Final

As of the morning of April 06, 2026, the Toronto Maple Leafs sit as the seventh-worst team in the NHL. Depending on the final five games, the Leafs will likely finish between 5th and 10th in the overall league standings.

This position is critical due to the Brandon Carlo trade conditions. If the Maple Leafs secure a Top 5 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft (post-lottery), they retain the selection. If the pick falls at 6th overall or later, it belongs to the Boston Bruins. Below, we look at the teams within a 5-point radius of Toronto as the season winds down.

NHL Standings Watch: April 06, 2026

The "Bubble" for the Top 5 Protection

The Vancouver Canucks (52 pts) are locked into the bottom of the standings. Meanwhile, the race between 5th and 13th last is incredibly tight. Teams such as the New York Rangers (75 pts), Chicago Blackhawks (70 pts), and Calgary Flames (72 pts) are unlikely to leapfrog Toronto in the standings unless they win out and the Leafs lose all their remaining games.

Games to Watch Today: April 06

Seattle Kraken at Winnipeg Jets
Chicago Blackhawks at San Jose Sharks
Nashville Predators at Los Angeles Kings

We will update these standings daily as the "Draft Lottery Race" reaches its conclusion.

Games Results Today: April 06

Seattle Kraken 2 at Winnipeg Jets 6 Final
Chicago Blackhawks 2 at San Jose Sharks 3 Final
Nashville Predators 2 at Los Angeles Kings 3 Final/SO

NHL Standings Watch: April 07, 2026

The "Bubble" for the Top 5 Protection

Games to Watch Today: April 07, 2026

Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens
Philadephia Flyers at New Jersey Devils
Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues
Seattle Kraken at Minnesota Wild
Nashville Predators at Anaheim Ducks

Games Results : April 07, 2026

Florida Panthers 3 at Montreal Canadiens 4 Final/SO
Philadephia Flyers 5 at New Jersey Devils 1 Final
Colorado Avalanche 3 at St. Louis Blues 1 Final
Seattle Kraken 2 at Minnesota Wild 5 Final
Nashville Predators 5 at Anaheim Ducks 0 Final

NHL Standings Watch: April 08, 2026

The "Bubble" for the Top 5 Protection

  • New Jersey Devils: 83 pts (4 games remaining)
  • Nashville Predators: 84 pts (4 games remaining)
  • Los Angeles Kings: 83 pts (5 games remaining)
  • San Jose Sharks: 81 pts (6 games remaining)
  • Toronto Maple Leafs: 78 pts (5 games remaining)
  • St. Louis Blues: 78 pts (5 games remaining)
  • Winnipeg Jets: 80 pts (5 games remaining)
  • Florida Panthers: 78 pts (4 games remaining)
  • Seattle Kraken: 75 pts (5 games remaining)
  • New York Rangers: 75 pts (4 games remaining)

Toronto Maple Leafs are Seventh last in NHL Standings 78 pts (5 games remaining)

Games to Watch Today: April 08, 2026

Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers
Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs
Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks

Note: We will update these standings daily following the conclusion of all NHL games.